To be human is to see patterns in the world around us. And although making sense of them is how we have thrived and evolved, sometimes we contort facts into patterns that don’t really exist. Such mangled thinking can turn a set of discrete facts into a conspiracy theory.
A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or a situation that asserts the existence of a conspicy, also known as a plot, ploy, or scheme, is a secret plan or agreement between people (called conspirers or conspirators) for an unlawful or harmful purpose. Conspiracy theories are tough to untangle, both because of the cognitive reasoning that leads people there and because of the very nature of such theories.
Dan Harumi on flawed conspiracy thinking:
The flaw of conspiracy thinking is that if you believe you already know the truth, then any evidence that contradicts your belief is just more cover-up. This kind of confirmation bias thinking is recursive. Take the Epstein files. If the Epstein files don’t say what you want them to say, then they’re not the real files. The 911 commission report was 600 pages, but it could have been 6000 pages. You either believe the government or you don’t. If you thought the elites were behind the cover-up, why would you think that they’d start telling the truth now? When people stop believing in official story, they don’t become neutral. Another belief takes its place.
Humans cannot deal with a narrative vacuum. When one person who doesn’t know talks to another person who doesn’t know, they both walk away from the conversation feeling like they learned something. We create a story that makes more sense, and is more satifying. It has nothing to do with seeking the truth, it’s an emotional defense against uncertainty. It’s not stupidity. It’s optimism. It is the belief that the world makes sense if we choose to make sense of it. It’s cause and effect.
This same wiring that allowed us to create civilization is also what causes us to see patterns in noise. It’s not that the official story is wrong, but we’re never going to know. If you are upset that the list was not revealed, write out a list of people who you thought would be on Jeffrey Epsein’s list. There’s your list.
Logical Form:
A is true.
B is why the truth cannot be proven.
Therefore, A is true.
Cognitive biases
Proportionality bias
This is the belief that a huge event (such as the assassination of John F. Kennedy or the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks) was caused by something equally huge. A lone gunman killing a president feels insufficient, so there must be a massive conspiracy behind it.
Illusory correlation
This is where we perceive relationships between unrelated events. Two things happening around the same time must be connected, especially if they fit our narrative.
Confirmation bias
This is where any contradicting evidence becomes part of the conspiracy itself. The absence of evidence becomes evidence of how well it is being hidden
Fundamental attribution error
This is where we attribute malicious intent to actions that might have innocent explanations. Government secrecy mut mean something sinister rather than bureaucratic incompetence.
Cascading Availability
When one hears enough people talk about it, it feels more and more plausible. Repetition creates the illusion of evidence.
Motivated reasoning:
This is when we work backward from a conclusion we want to reach, finding creative ways to support them while dismissing other contradicting evidence.
Agency detection
This is where one is hypervigilant in detecting the agents behind events. Random market crashes are manipulations, natural disasters are human-made weapons of catastrophe.